Predicted 5 year mortality after colorectal cancer surgery for patients sampled for circulating vitamin D level

x = -5.53298+(C*-0.0106)+(K)+(E*0.04093)+(F*0.18877)+(G*0.85523)+(H*0.29772)

Where:

C = 25OHD (nmol/l)
K = Sample month (where 1 is January, 2 is February etc.)
E = Age (years)
F = Gender (M/F)
G = AJCC stage
H = Site (Rectum/ Colon)

Using x the equation for probability of death at 5 years (y) is then:


        y = -0.0018x^4 - 0.0129x^3 + 0.0092x^2 + 0.2433x + 0.4943

Form

Notes

Model developed in cohort of 585 patients undergoing curative colorectal cancer resection within Scottish NHS hospitals and sampled at a single time point during their cancer work-up or follow-up between 2009 and 2016. In the test dataset provides AUC of 0.77 for overall survival. This model is not yet validated for clinical use and should not be used in clinical practice for survival prediction or management decision making.

Calculator restricted to those patients with vitamin D sampled pre-operatively or greater than 12 months following surgery.